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Tags:, Ulster, probability, scientists, years
(View ID:53360)
who won the World Cup? Mathematicians considered ground  Professor Toland predicted Germany will play in another World Cup win. Beijing News Weekly Awakening the World Cup around the corner, who won the World Cup, is naturally the focus of media and public attention.Therefore, forecasting the current champion to become one of the masses loved leisure activities.Bailey is a well-known master of the forecast, which he predicted his team's victory, the team that will be facing his doom.Many gambling and football lottery site will be based on their experience and intuition, gives reference information.Mathematicians have come across a time like this, naturally, inevitably tried his hand. German professor digital fortune ago, a physics professor in Germany to use their development Toland of a mathematical formula to predict the winner of this year's World Cup in Germany.His forecast is based on the German team in previous years, the results of the World Cup, such as Germany in 1954, 1974 and 1990 won the crown three times; World Cup four times since 1990, the German team ranking was 3.7 on average; the German average of four fifth to win a championship and so on. under these laws, he produced the following trigonometric formulas.According to this formula, the 2010 World Cup, Germany will win. Toland The specific method is taught, first, find the German team in the World Cup success over the years, and then they were included in the chart, the next process is to find a formula.For a formula, each enter a year, you can get a result.For example, enter 1970 (the ninth), you can get 2.3, enter the 1974 (tenth), you can get 6.4.His goal is to try to find the formula makes the first figure of the German historical record of all data points fall on the formula by the second graph the curve. Finally, Toland found that the above-mentioned formula, and thus obtain a prediction curve, in the history of the German team to win every year before the election, the result is a prediction curve.If you enter the year 2006 (the eighteenth World Cup), by placing the value is 1.So he concluded that 2010 (nineteenth session) was won by Germany. 1998 World Cup in France, it was that, when the Brazilian team won the championship the last two in 1970 and 1994, 1970 +1994=3964; Argentina both 1978 and 1986 wins, 1978 +1986=3964; German team recently won twice in 1974 and 1990, 1990 +1974=3964.According to this formula projections ,3964-1998=1966,1998 World Cup winner should be the champion in 1966, is England.Of course, the eventual champion England rather than France. if viewed strictly from a mathematical point of 3964 Professor of Law Law and Toland, the two formulas is not the law of depth, more like a digital fortune teller, amateur scientists can only be seen as fun, not to mention is the real scientific predictions.Wall Street once had a claim to financial practitioners invented a system that can successfully predict stock trend over the past 20 years, a time many people were surprised, and later he published his system, in fact, but according to a baseball league team performance trends as the basis to become widespread in the joke.Results of the team with 20 years of stock trend trend just a coincidence of similar, but has no real connection with this stock prediction method similar to the two World Cup prediction. British universities predicted a battle of wits Some scientists are not satisfied with the invention a prediction formula for playing the World Cup look, but the forecast will be World Cup winner as a subject of study.Korea-Japan World Cup in 2002, Warwick University and the University of Ulster scientists use a similar method to predict the attribution of the World Cup.Professor Yu Tuolan compared to only consider the record of a factor in German history, the method they use is more complex, considering each team's performance in World Cup qualifiers, international ranking, each team's unique strengths and weaknesses of each team Venue journey distance to each team the length of time between games to rest and so on.They include many items using a complex system of equations, these factors are referred to as digital variable input, the final result for each game can give a forecast, such as South Africa and Spain match, the two sides Shengping Fu The probability is by how much. after computer scientists to simulate a virtual World Cup, from the group stage elimination round game, quarter-finals to the final, every game one by one calculation, and finally get the championship and the team rankings.As for the prediction results of each race is only a probability, the computer simulation results of each game is not fixed, but consistent with the probability distribution, so every time you run simulation of the World Cup, the results are also different.Researchers at the University of Warwick, according to thousands of simulated data after the statistics, the probability of winning in Argentina is 13.2%, ranked first, followed by Brazil, France, Britain and Italy, and China the possibility of winning the lowest (0.3%).Scientists at the University of Ulster is the result of prediction will be champion in Brazil, Italy is second. team approach similar to the two forecasts, the results would be different, mainly due to the coefficients of different factors to set a difference.Scientists at the University of Warwick, the more value the World Cup on the eve of the team's record, and the University of Ulster probability of this factor in the outcome of the influence of setting in less than.That year, Brazil won the University of Ulster wins the game in the computer prediction of the University of Warwick. World Cup in Germany in 2006, the same scientists have established a complicated mathematical model to predict the results, that Brazil, France, Germany, Holland, England, followed by the five teams most likely to win, But the end result --- Italy to win, so that these projections were stunned.In addition, Professor Toland was once predicted by his formula is the champion of Germany.This once again confirms the prediction of Professor Toland is more like fuel drums in the air for the German team, rather than making a real prediction. While some scientists have established prediction model is not just a joke, considering a number of factors, scientific.But they are using reality to predict the future, in a rapidly changing, full of mystery and uncertainty before the football game is always defeated.Los - Alamos National Laboratory, statistical physicists have three major sports competition on several of Situation to mathematical analysis, found that in baseball, hockey, basketball, football and soccer 5 game, football is not the most certainty, the most suspense, competition, weak teams often beat the biggest teams, naturally also the most difficult to predict.And this may be true football charm. □ Jiaoshu Ming (Hong Kong City University) share Netease microblogging
, Ulster, probability, scientists, years, stock trends, record, formula prediction, Warwick, performance trends, Blue Team
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