World gambling - Awakening the World Cup in South Africa passenger forecasts

passenger forecasts Awakening World Cup

simulation of two British university professor has 2002 World Cup, we learn the following methods to predict their current world Cup championship.If you are interested, you can also find their own computers, according to our method to measure it.Text | Jiaoshu Ming

find relevant factors 1 decided to team performance in a game there are many factors of good or bad, we are here to let us use the 5 entry in the FIFA Web site can easily find the data: international rankings, World Cup qualifier result, the two teams against historical results, place each team to contest the journey distance, each teams two games of the length of time between the rest.Due to the importance of factors is not the same, the international rankings and World Cup qualifier result, two more decisive results against history, and team to race distance location, length of rest time between games is the relatively chance factors.Therefore, the overall strength index of different factors in different proportion.We designed the proportion of each factor as: international rankings 45% World Cup qualifier results 20% against two historical results 20% race distance location 10% the length of time between games to rest 5% rate 2 our two teams for each game to rate.International ranking points: According to the latest FIFA rankings, currently Brazil, Spain, respectively 1611 , 1565 points ranked first, second, and the Korean team returned ranking 106 place in the 32 teams in the bottom.Thus, in this individual, the Brazilian team was 100 points, the Spanish team for the 96.51 points, while the Korean team returned to 0 points.World Cup qualifier result points: In addition to South Africa was the host, the other teams are involved in the continents of the qualifiers, their performance in qualifying is their 6 a barometer on the performance.According to 31 team's winning percentage in the qualifiers, Spain to fight ten European Football results of victory had 100 points, which have a poor performance in Uruguay, Honduras, North Korea, South Africa, one in which the average score for the time being in accordance with the 50 meter.Distance to the points race location: South Africa is the host, apparently the biggest advantage, other African countries for South Africa's land and water will be more responsive, but also occupied half of the home advantage.We score this one to Google Earth countries on the subject from a distance of South Africa, from the more much lower score.South Africa 100 points, while North America, several countries like the United States, Honduras, Mexico, scores are low.The rest of the team match the length of time between the points: A team of two games short intervals, players will be tired and affect the game play.Generally between games for the 3 to 7 days on average, according to schedule, if only two games away from 3 days, a score of 20 points, if it is 7 days, you can get 100 points.Score points against two teams of history: always have a killer team is another team that score against the teams in winning percentage in the history of decisions, such as South Africa's opening match against Mexico, in the past 3 competition, Mexico 2 win 1 negative, so the score for Mexico 66.7 points, the South African team score of 33.3 points. 3 overall strength index calculated for each team 5 a single score, according to the proportion of the design, together, we get a total score - the overall strength index.The total score is calculated for each level in a match probability of the outcome of the key teams.In page after the first 4 step, the first 5 step, we group an example to illustrate the Spanish Sai Baxi.Of course, the British professor with a model system than we have written much more complex, the factors to be considered not just the few, not just directly add that simple.In addition, the calculation of the above factors and the coefficient selection, a lot of fans will have different views, benevolent see benevolence and the wise see wisdom, Britain's two universities is different because the choice of a coefficient obtained different results.Of course, you can choose the game you think there are other important factors.In fact, we can also get the first set of models in the previous World Cup, to experiment and see whether the accuracy close to the actual results to adjust the coefficient and calculation methods.